How Trump could influence Spain’s snap election

Donald Trump’s Republican party may have been soundly beaten in the midterms, but that doesn’t mean the US President can’t influence the upcoming Spanish general election on November 29th.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly angered Washington in recent years. His left-leaning foreign policy has clashed with American objectives, notably denying use of military bases in Spain during the initial assault on Iran, and Sánchez’s refusal to budge on defence spending.

Then there’s also Trump’s random, rambling, often late-night interventions on social media that touch on any and everything — running commentary on the Spanish election would be no surprise.

Ahead of polling day, how might Trump and Washington influence the election in Spain?

Mobilise the Spanish left

The spectre of Donald Trump doesn’t necessarily have to be a negative for Sánchez, whom the polls suggest is all but down and out and almost certain to lose the election.

READ ALSO: Vox rising – What latest polls say a month away from Spain’s election

In fact, the Democrat victories in the midterms — winning in traditionally GOP places like Texas — may serve to energise or mobilise the Spanish left on the campaign trail. For the Socialists (PSOE), the resounding Democratic victory offers a politically recognisable narrative: the chance to stop a radical right-wing leader at the ballot box.

Sánchez on Wednesday celebrated the Democrat victory, linking it to his own campaign: “It happened in Brazil. It just happened in the US. And it will soon happen in Spain,” he said.

The far-right wave of his rivals is “no longer growing, it is unravelling,” he added.

READ ALSO: Far-right wave ‘unravelling’, says Spain’s PM after US vote

Linking Trump with Spain’s far-right Vox, the party likely to become the junior coalition partner in any right-wing government, Sánchez could use Trump in his message calling for progressive mobilisation in the weeks leading up to 29th November.

The Republican defeat also allows Sánchez and the PSOE to say that the race isn’t over, despite the polls, and emphasise that election results are not a foregone conclusion and that a high turnout can alter political expectations. 

The idea that turnout can turn around a seemingly unfavourable situation has already featured in other PSOE political strategies. Sánchez said the same about Lula de Silva’s unexpected victory in Brazil.

In Trump’s case, Sánchez will try to use the Republican setback to present 29 November as an opportunity to halt the advance of political forces aligned with Trump.

Similarly, the mobilisation of progressive voters would not necessarily benefit the PSOE alone. Far-left parties like Podemos or the new Frente Amplio might attempt to capitalise on the same argument, boosting the left-wing bloc result overall — something essential if Sánchez is to prevent a right-wing majority.

Ceuta and immigration

Despite Sánchez’s attempts to make the campaign about housing and pivot away from the Ceuta crisis, immigration will undoubtedly play a role and could be an issue Trump sounds off on during the campaign.

The US President has already spoken out about the Ceuta crisis several times. On July 31st , speaking from Camp David, he warned that the US would be invaded “on a scale that will make what is happening in Spain seem small”.

In September, Trump said that Spain was a “ruined country” and on October 20th he claimed that “Spain was invaded”.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio used his National Day address on October 12th to call on Spain to strengthen its borders. Any immigration interventions from across the pond will help reinforce PP and Vox positions.

Social media

Then there’s social media and the potential role of Trump and the MAGA ecosystem during the Spanish campaign.

Trump has a huge following online and a network of conservative influencers and media personalities to disseminate his comments — however true — meaning they pick up attention around the world.

Spanish accounts sympathetic to the MAGA movement will also use any Trump intervention they can to spread criticisms of Sánchez’s government. Social media algorithms and networks of coordinated social media accounts may also help to spread mis and dis-information on the campaign. 

Deep fakes and AI-generated content are hallmarks of the Trumpist social media strategy, and one adopted by the PP in Spain recently, so expect to see them in the buildup to polling day.

Similarly, with Trump’s record, in the case of an unlikely Socialist comeback victory, it’s not difficult to imagine him casting doubt on the results or mail votes, an idea the Spanish right has already leaned into.

Backing Vox

Trump has not only been critical of Sánchez. The President has also praised far-right leader Santiago Abascal in the past, and Vox has long-standing relations with the Trump administration and wider MAGA movement worldwide.

In 2025, Trump singled out Abascal: “What a great guy the leader of Spain’s Vox party, Santiago Abascal. Thank you, Santiago. You’re doing a great job,” he said at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). 

Trump met Abascal in 2024, providing us with this famous photo, which provided an opportunity for to discuss shared policy aims, including: “strengthening borders against illegal immigration; national sovereignty against globalism; the protection of the family and life against gender ideology and woke culture; the prosperity of the middle classes against the climate dictatorship; and a firm commitment to investment in defence,” according to El País.

Expect these buzzwords to be used a lot online in the MAGA ecosphere.

In May Abascal also met with the US Ambassador to Spain, Benjamin León Jr., to discuss the “serious situation” in the country due to alleged “corruption” at the heart of Pedro Sánchez’s ruling Socialist (PSOE) government.

READ ALSO: Spain’s far-right leader meets US Ambassador to discuss government ‘corruption’