What the US midterm results mean for Americans in Spain

Preliminary results from the US midterms are in, and the Democrats have won control of both the House and Senate for the first time in a midterm since 2006, when the Bush administration was heavily engaged in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Kansas, Adam Hamilton secured the first Senate seat for the Democratic Party since 1932.

The results also brought several historic firsts, including Keisha Lance Bottoms becoming the first Black woman elected governor of a US state; Gina Hinojosa becoming Texas’s first Latina governor; and Abdul El-Sayed becoming the first Muslim senator.

READ ALSO: Far-right wave ‘unravelling’, says Spain’s PM after US midterms

It appears to be a clear referendum on Trump’s administration, with voters crossing party lines to reject the same cost-of-living crisis fuelling political discontent across European cities.

But what does it the Democrats’ so-called ‘blue wave’ mean for Americans living in Spain and Spain-US relations, both economically and politically speaking?

The Local Spain spoke with political analysts to find out.

The importance of Americans abroad voting

Overseas votes matter.

“I hope Americans living abroad understand how significant their vote is, especially as we continue to see closer races. I hope they’ll stay informed and understand that the more engaged they are, the more likely legislators are to pay attention to the issues that matter to them,” says Juan Verde, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Europe and Eurasia at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

According to Democrats Abroad Spain, overseas votes have been decisive in tight races, such as Michigan in 2024. Alana Moceri, an international relations professor at the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs who founded the organization, is already looking ahead to 2028.

“A main issue is the impact these results have on overseas voting in the presidential election, because threats to overseas voting by the Trump administration have been very real,” Moceri told The Local.

“With the Dems controlling even just the House, they can block legislation that would make it difficult to vote from abroad.”

It’s an issue on many Americans’ minds, and the midterms’ results will bring some relief.

Reputations at stake

Many of the experts The Local interviewed pointed to the impact this could have on how Americans are seen abroad.

Dr. Pablo Biderbost, Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Salamanca, told The Local via email, “I think the most important issue is how Americans are perceived outside their country. Although in recent months people in host communities have begun to distinguish between different sectors of American society, there is always a group of individuals who equate all voters with the outcome of an election.”

“I think it’s more symbolic and will affect how people feel about their home country. It could have implications for intermarried families and whether they travel home to the States,” Moceri added. “Maybe with a Democratic congress, people would feel more confident travelling to the US, and that’s going to show up in a lot of ways.”

The shift could translate to fewer Americans packing up and moving abroad, Verde says. But don’t expect to see a big decrease yet.

READ ALSO: Record number of Americans move to Spain

“A lot of them are going to want to wait it out and see what happens in the presidential election, but you’ll still see many Americans moving to Spain, because it continues to offer them a very good quality of life,” Verde says.

Recent surveys, as well as The Local’s own reporting, support his analysis. A 2025 Harris Poll reported that a lower cost of living was the primary reason Americans cited for considering a move abroad, closely followed by dissatisfaction with US politics and a higher quality of life overseas.

“People are looking for places where their US pensions give them greater purchasing power, or where their money goes further while they work remotely for an American employer,” says Dr. Biderbost.

Economics, prices and uncertainty

We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the US reputation overseas, and what a clear referendum signals, but many Americans want to know how the election will directly affect their way of life in Spain.

Most of the analysts The Local spoke with didn’t expect a big impact on individual wallets, although they do expect changes to broad economic concerns, such as tariffs and interest rates.

“Exchange rates maybe could be affected, but there’s nothing that indicates a Democratic Congress could change that. They do say they would step in on tariffs, but it’s not guaranteed that it would influence the dollar,” says Moceri.

Even with the added checks and balances from a Democrat-controlled legislative branch, Trump will still have large powers over foreign relations, including veto power over legislation. Overriding it requires a two-thirds majority, more than the advantage the Democrats have.

Verde also cautions that while we’ll see some changes, prices are unlikely to change drastically.

“I think the Democrats winning the House has everything to do with prices, with inflation, and I think Trump is very aware of it. So, he’s going to try to bring some stability to our economy, but globalisation based solely on economic efficiency is no more,” he told The Local.

“We see Europe and the US redirecting supply chains. Expect to see trade based on greater security and closeness. Companies will pay more for that, and it will affect consumer prices.”

As strains with China threaten to increase, the US and Europe may grow closer again, but that may not alleviate the suffering of Spanish business; many of the tariffs are politically driven as much as they are commerce-driven.

While global shifts may not turn tides quickly, Dr. Biderbost highlights how economic interests could be affected.

“For example, the results may influence interest rates in the medium term, which in turn matter for the bank loans or mortgages that Americans living abroad still hold in their home country. Based on these results, many may also decide how long they will remain resident in their host countries (and even whether they are interested in permanently acquiring a second nationality),” he says.

Can we be friends again?

Regarding the relationship between Spain and the US, it’s too soon to say. Verde warns against assuming a blue legislative branch will undo the damage done by two years of volatile global relations.

That might not be a bad thing.

“I’m very optimistic about Spain. In the new world order that I’m describing, the countries that are going to do well are the ones that are able to attract talent. Spain has huge potential to become a hub for clean energy, for example. And I think the future of prosperity will come to countries that invest in technology and data centres.”

The Spanish government is actively investing in a high-tech future. Spain is emerging as a major European data-centre hub, with the sector projecting €66.9 billion in investment through 2030. Amazon alone has announced plans to invest €33.7 billion in Spanish data centre and AI infrastructure, concentrated in Aragón.

READ ALSO: Why Spain and big tech are at odds over AI data centres

What does that mean for Americans living in Spain? Likely better work opportunities but also pressure on the housing market from higher-earning foreigners.

Will transnationalism survive November?

Many questions about the relations between Spain and the US will remain in flux, and some may be answered later this month.

“I suspect the Spanish elections later this month will have a greater effect on bilateral relations than the midterms,” Amanda Sloat, a professor of practice at IE University in Madrid and former senior director for Europe at the US National Security Council, told The Local.

“We could see a blue wave in the US and watch Spain move to the right,” says Moceri.

That shift could have a greater impact on tariffs, trade, and security than a diverse US legislature. As the month ticks on, Americans living in Spain are reminded that they live between two political systems. Changes to either could affect everything from their travel itineraries to their retirement plans.

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