Mexico Population and Ethnic Groups Explained

MEXICO · POPULATION

INEGI’s 2025 count shows a Mexico of 130.9 million people that is growing slowly, ageing fast and far from uniform.

The Mexico population reached 130.9 million in October 2025, according to INEGI, the national statistics institute. That is 4.9 million more than the 2020 census found, but growth has slowed to 0.7% a year.

For US readers, Mexico matters as the birthplace of nearly a quarter of US immigrants and as a factory partner. This guide covers size, age, cities, groups, migration and coexistence; daily news is in the Rio Times Mexico section.

How Big Is the Mexico Population in 2026

The latest official count is the 2025 Intercensal Survey, a very large sample rather than a full census. INEGI interviewed a sample of more than 7.3 million homes between 6 October and 14 November 2025.

It estimated 130,911,314 residents as of 15 October 2025. Of these, 130.4 million lived in private homes and just over 517,000 in collective dwellings such as institutions.

The last full count, the March 2020 census, found 126,014,024 people. INEGI then ranked Mexico the world’s 11th most populous country, below Japan and above Ethiopia.

CONAPO, the government’s National Population Council, still ranked Mexico 11th in July 2026, with almost 133 million people. That projection predates INEGI’s new survey, which points to a somewhat smaller population.

Households are getting smaller. INEGI counted 39.7 million occupied private dwellings in 2025, with an average of 3.3 occupants, down from 3.6 in 2020.

At the 2020 census the most populous state was the State of Mexico, which wraps around the capital, with 16,992,418 people. Colima, on the Pacific coast, was the smallest with 731,391.

In 2025 Mexico City itself had 9.2 million residents and Jalisco, home to Guadalajara, had 8.7 million, INEGI’s state results show.

An Ageing Country With Fewer Births

Half of all Mexicans were 32 or younger in 2025, up from 29 in 2020, 26 in 2010 and 22 in 2000. Women made up 51.9% of residents of private homes.

Older people are a growing share. People aged 60 and over were 12.0% of the population at the 2020 census, against 9.1% in 2010.

The government’s National Population Programme for 2026 to 2030, published in May 2026, makes population ageing a national priority. It also formally recognises the fall in fertility.

Registered births totalled 1,678,532 in 2025, a rate of 47.7 per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49. The rate was unchanged from 2024 but well below the 67.7 recorded in 2016.

Women aged 12 and over had borne 1.9 children on average in 2025, against 2.1 in 2020 and 2.6 in 2000. In July 2026 the interior ministry put the fertility rate at 1.6 children per woman, La Razón reported.

That is below the roughly 2.1 children per woman that keeps a population stable without migration. Regional gaps are wide: Chiapas, in the south, had a median age of 26 in 2025, against 37 in Mexico City.

Cities, States and the Rural South

Mexico is mostly urban. At the 2020 census, 21.4% of people lived in places with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants, the threshold INEGI uses for rural communities.

Almost half, 48.4%, lived in the 145 cities of 100,000 people or more. At the other extreme were 185,243 localities of fewer than 2,500 people.

Mexico City and the surrounding State of Mexico form one continuous metropolitan area, the country’s economic and political centre. Guadalajara and Monterrey are the next big urban poles.

Internal migration is common: 16.8% of residents in 2025 had been born in a different state from the one they lived in. Violence also moves people.

In 2025, 509,900 households included someone who had been forced to move by crime or insecurity, INEGI found. Those households were home to 1.6 million people.

Chiapas had 5.9 million people and Oaxaca 4.2 million in 2025. Both southern states have large indigenous populations.

Indigenous Mexico, From Nahuatl to Maya

Article 2 of the constitution, last reformed in September 2024, describes a pluricultural and multi-ethnic nation originally founded on its indigenous peoples. Awareness of indigenous identity is the fundamental test of who counts as indigenous.

By that test, 24.2 million people considered themselves indigenous in 2025, or 18.6% of the population. Only 29.5% of those aged three and over spoke an indigenous language.

In all, 7,421,285 people aged three and over spoke an indigenous language in 2025, 5.9% of that age group. The share was 6.1% in 2020.

A federal law makes the indigenous languages and Spanish national languages with the same validity. They can be used for any public business or official procedure.

Nahuatl, the language of the Aztecs, had 1.6 million speakers in 2025. Maya followed with 778,900, then Tseltal with 663,800, Tsotsil with 596,800 and Mixtec with 505,600.

Those five languages accounted for 56.2% of all speakers. At the 2020 census, Nahuatl was the main indigenous language in 15 states, and Maya in Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatán.

Indigenous Mexico is concentrated in the south. In Oaxaca, 66.6% of residents considered themselves indigenous in 2025, in Yucatán 56.5% and in Chiapas 38.8%.

Chiapas and Oaxaca had the highest share of speakers, 29.0% each, followed by Yucatán at 21.4% and Guerrero at 15.4%. Mexico City also had 619,600 residents who identified as indigenous.

Speakers are older than other Mexicans: 35.1% were 50 or over in 2023, against 27.0% of non-speakers. Women aged 15 to 49 who spoke an indigenous language averaged 2.16 children, against 1.42 for other women.

Afro-Mexicans, Mestizos and Religion

The constitution also recognises Afro-Mexican peoples, descendants of people brought from Africa and settled in Mexico since colonial times. In 2025, 2.1 million people identified as Afro-Mexican or Afro-descendant, 1.6% of the population.

The 2020 census had counted 2,576,213, or 2.0%, and the 2025 results do not explain the difference. Their share reached 7.5% in Guerrero and 4.6% in Oaxaca in 2025, both states on the Pacific coast.

Most Mexicans are commonly described as mestizo, of mixed indigenous and European ancestry, but the census does not ask about race. Skin colour still matters, as an INEGI survey of adults aged 25 to 64 found in 2016.

Of those who placed themselves in the darkest skin tones, 20.2% had no schooling, against 10% of those with the lightest. Darker-skinned people were also less likely to hold skilled jobs.

Foreigners are few: people born abroad were 0.9% of residents in 2025. Of those, 57.1% were born in the US, 6.5% in Venezuela and 5.3% in Cuba, and half held Mexican nationality.

Religion data come from the 2020 census, when 77.7% of Mexicans were Catholic, down from 82.7% in 2010. Protestants and evangelicals made up 11.2%, and 8.1% said they had no religion.

Smaller groups included 58,876 Jews and 7,982 Muslims. The Virgin of Guadalupe is central to Mexican Catholicism, and her feast day on 12 December draws huge pilgrimages to Mexico City.

Migration, Remittances and the Diaspora

Emigration continues. INEGI estimates that 1,259,978 residents of Mexico moved abroad between 2020 and 2025, and that 150,752 of them had come back.

The US Census Bureau counted 10.68 million US residents born in Mexico in 2022, 23.1% of all immigrants. That was about one million fewer than in 2010.

Over the same period, the number of US immigrants from South America and the rest of Central America rose by 2.1 million. Mexico’s share of the total fell from 29.3% to 23.1%.

Money flows the other way. Banco de México, the central bank, recorded US$5.45 billion in remittances in August 2026, from about 13.2 million transfers averaging roughly US$412.

Remittances totalled US$41.8 billion from January to August 2026, up 2.2% on a year earlier, Banco de México data show. August alone was 3.6% lower than a year before.

A 1% US tax has applied since January 2026 to remittances paid in cash, money orders or cashier’s checks, the IRS says. Fewer households rely on money from abroad: 4.7% received such support in 2025, against 5.1% in 2020.

Deportations add a return flow. In April 2026 the interior ministry said 203,685 Mexicans had been returned from the US since 20 January 2025, Por Esto reported.

How Mexico’s Groups Live Together

Mexico’s inequalities follow ethnic lines. INEGI’s 2024 poverty measurement found 66.3% of indigenous-language speakers in poverty, against 26.7% of everyone else.

The national poverty rate was 29.6%, and 32.3% among Afro-descendants. Rural poverty, at 45.8%, was almost double the urban rate of 25.0%.

Government cash programmes now reach deep into society. In 2025, 41.4% of households received benefits from a government programme, up from 25.0% in 2020, INEGI found.

Those programmes are central to the politics of the governing Morena party, as Mexico politics explained sets out. Households receiving a retirement pension also rose, from 13.0% to 16.6%.

Identity is fluid. Of the 24.2 million people who identify as indigenous, fewer than a third speak an indigenous language, which shows identity outlasting language.

Some gaps are narrowing. Internet access reached 75.7% of homes in 2025, against 53.9% in 2020, and adult illiteracy fell from 4.8% to 3.7%.

What It Means for US Readers

Mexico’s demographic shift matters to US companies that build plants there, a trend covered in Mexico nearshoring explained. A median age of 32 still means a young workforce, but births have fallen sharply since 2016.

Migration is changing shape. More than 1.2 million people left Mexico between 2020 and 2025, INEGI estimates, while deportations from the US send others back.

The 1% US tax applies when senders pay in cash or with a money order, cashier’s check or a similar physical instrument. Remittances still reach 4.7% of Mexican households.

For investors and consumer brands, Mexico is a market of 130.9 million people, with three in four homes online. The companies that serve it are profiled in who runs Mexico’s economy, with wider context in Mexico explained.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket bettors gave about a 3% chance that President Claudia Sheinbaum leaves office by 31 December 2026 (7 October, 8:38 a.m. ET). That contract had traded about US$35,000, within an event worth about US$288,000.

Sheinbaum, of the left-wing Morena party, has governed since October 2024. For population policy, from pensions and cash transfers to migration talks with Washington, the bets point to continuity through 2026.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

CONAPO has not yet published projections that incorporate the 2025 survey, so official forecasts for 2026 and beyond may come down. The survey is a sample, so its figures carry sampling error.

INEGI’s 2025 release does not explain why the Afro-Mexican share fell from 2.0% to 1.6%, and it does not report religion.

The full effect of US deportations and the remittance tax on migration in 2026 cannot yet be measured. Whether the fertility rate keeps falling below 1.6 is also open.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the population of Mexico in 2026?

INEGI estimated 130.9 million residents as of October 2025 in its Intercensal Survey, published in September 2026. CONAPO projections made before that survey put Mexico at almost 133 million for 2026.

What are the main ethnic groups in Mexico?

Most Mexicans are commonly described as mestizo, of mixed indigenous and European descent, though the census does not count that category. In 2025, 18.6% identified as indigenous and 1.6% as Afro-Mexican.

How many Mexicans speak an indigenous language?

INEGI counted 7.4 million speakers aged three and over in 2025, 5.9% of that age group. Nahuatl is the most widely spoken, with 1.6 million speakers in 2025.

What religion are most Mexicans?

At the 2020 census, 77.7% of Mexicans were Catholic, down from 82.7% in 2010. Protestants and evangelicals made up 11.2%, and 8.1% had no religion.

How many Mexicans live in the United States?

The US Census Bureau counted 10.68 million US residents born in Mexico in 2022, nearly a quarter of all immigrants. Millions more US citizens have Mexican ancestry.

Is Mexico’s population still growing?

Yes, but slowly: about 0.7% a year between 2020 and 2025, down from 1.0% between 2015 and 2020. Registered births were 1.68 million in 2025.

Sources: INEGI, Encuesta Intercensal 2025, press release 54/26; INEGI, Encuesta Intercensal 2025, results report 37/26; INEGI state results for Mexico City, Jalisco, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero and Yucatán; INEGI, Censo 2020 results; INEGI, Censo 2020 main results; INEGI, registered births 2025; INEGI, indigenous peoples statistics 2022; INEGI, indigenous peoples statistics 2024 (ENADID 2023); INEGI, social mobility module 2016; INEGI, poverty measurement 2024 (presentation); Constitution of Mexico, Article 2; General Law on Linguistic Rights of Indigenous Peoples; Chihuahua State Population Council, CONAPO data, July 2026; Banco de México, remittances (CE81); US Census Bureau, foreign-born population 2022; IRS, remittance transfer tax; La Razón; Por Esto, remittances; Por Esto, repatriations (all accessed 7 October 2026).