Mexico Consumer Confidence Drops to 45.1 in September

ECONOMY · MEXICO

Mexico consumer confidence fell in September for the first time since May, official data released on Tuesday 6 October show. The seasonally adjusted indicator dropped 1.2 points to 45.1.

For US readers, the figure is a read on whether Mexican households will keep spending on cars, appliances and imported goods. That demand matters for US exporters and for companies with large Mexican retail operations.

The data come from the national consumer confidence survey, known as ENCO. It is run jointly by INEGI and Banco de México, the country’s autonomous central bank. INEGI, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, is Mexico’s autonomous statistics agency.

Both Series Point Lower in September

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the consumer confidence indicator stood at 45.1 points in September. That is 1.2 points below August and 1.0 point below September 2025, INEGI said in its bulletin.

August was revised up to 46.3 points from the 46.1 first published a month ago. That makes the September drop slightly larger than a direct comparison with the earlier figure suggests.

The original series, which is not adjusted for seasonal patterns, tells the same story. It fell to 45.2 points from 46.6 in August, a drop of 1.4 points. Compared with September 2025, it was 0.9 points lower.

Banco de México publishes the unadjusted figures in its statistics database, alongside the adjusted series released in the INEGI bulletin. Both are built from the same monthly survey.

September ended three straight monthly gains. The adjusted indicator rose from its 2026 low of 43.7 in May to 43.9 in June, 45.0 in July and 46.3 in August.

Every Component Fell From August

The indicator averages five components. In seasonally adjusted terms, all five declined from August, according to the bulletin.

Households’ view of their own finances compared with a year ago fell 1.9 points to 52.0. Their expected finances in twelve months dropped 1.5 points to 57.6.

Views of the national economy were weaker. The assessment of the country’s current situation fell 1.3 points to 39.0, and expectations for the next year fell 0.9 points to 44.7.

The gauge of whether now is a good time to buy furniture, televisions or appliances slipped 0.5 points to 32.0. It remains the lowest of the five components.

In the original series, the five components stood at 51.8, 57.9, 39.3, 45.1 and 32.0 points respectively. Each was also below its August level.

Several complementary indicators point the same way. The outlook for jobs over the next twelve months fell to 44.5 points, 2.8 points below a year earlier. Plans to buy a car within two years eased to 14.9 points.

The price outlook indicator slipped 0.6 points to 17.3. INEGI notes that a fall in this gauge means households expect prices to rise faster.

What It Means for You

For investors in Mexican retail, banking and consumer stocks, the drop is a modest warning rather than a shock. The adjusted index is still above its May low and close to its level a year ago.

Companies selling durable goods should watch the purchase gauge and the car plans indicator most closely. Both remain low, which suggests big-ticket spending is unlikely to accelerate soon.

The figures also add to a mixed picture for Mexico’s economy this autumn. INEGI reported on Monday that investment rose in July, as covered in Mexico Investment Rises 6.6% in July on Machine Imports.

Travellers and expatriates will see little immediate effect from one survey reading. For the currency, see Mexico Peso Firms to 18.13 Ahead of Inflation Data.

What Is Not Known

The bulletin does not explain why confidence fell in September. Fieldwork took place in the first 20 days of the month, so the survey cannot capture any later events.

The survey covers 2,336 homes a month in Mexico’s 32 largest cities. It does not measure rural households, whose spending patterns can differ.

Seasonally adjusted figures are revised as new data arrive, as August’s reading was this month. The September level could still change when October data are published on Thursday 5 November.

It is also unclear how much the softer mood will show up in actual spending. Retail sales data for September will come later.

What Prediction Markets Say

Banco de México, known as Banxico, sets the benchmark interest rate, which drives the cost of the car loans and store credit behind the big-ticket purchases this survey tracks. That makes its November decision the clearest market link to the confidence data.

On Polymarket, bets on no change at Banxico’s November meeting stood at 95% at 8:53 a.m. ET on 6 October. That is up about 20 points in a week, on roughly US$25,600 traded in that contract.

A 25-basis-point hike is priced at about 3.7%, and a 25-basis-point cut at about 2%. Total volume across the November event is about US$36,700. These are real-money bets, not polls or official forecasts.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Mexico’s consumer confidence indicator?

It is a monthly gauge of how households judge their finances, the economy and buying conditions. INEGI and Banco de México compile it from a survey of 2,336 homes in 32 cities.

How much did Mexico consumer confidence fall in September 2026?

The seasonally adjusted indicator fell 1.2 points to 45.1. The original, unadjusted series fell 1.4 points to 45.2.

When is the next release?

INEGI will publish the October figures on Thursday 5 November 2026.

Sources: INEGI, ENCO bulletin 617/26, 6 October 2026 · Banco de México, SIE, consumer confidence indicator (original and adjusted series) · INEGI, ENCO bulletin, September 2026

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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