Kansas becomes a surprise Senate battleground
Senate Republicans are suddenly rushing to save a Senate seat in Kansas.
On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, reserved over $8 million in ads starting this weekend to prop up GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
The spending in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in 94 years comes amid a deteriorating national political environment for the GOP. The impact of spiking diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war with Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s trade wars, have been acutely felt in the heartland.
Private polling from both parties shows a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.
“It’s a perfect storm,” said one senior Senate GOP aide, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “The president isn’t making it any better.”
Lower Costs Now, a new Super PAC affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ Super PAC, dropped about $700,000 into the state Thursday night, and Democrats are considering more spending to bolster Hamilton. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been including Kansas in private fundraising pitches to donors, according to two people familiar with the conversations.
It’s a remarkable shift in a state that was not high on either party’s target list just a few months ago — and shows the ferocity of the headwinds Republicans face in the final month of the campaign.
“I think we’re on track to win, but I am comforted to know that the cavalry is coming,” said Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party. Herbert said Hamilton’s particular appeal as a pastor who heads the largest United Methodist church in the country, located in suburban Kansas City, made him formidable.
“I personally know people who attend or have attended that church in the past,” said Herbert. “The ones that I know are right-leaning, and so that’s troublesome. That’s trouble — just the sheer ability to reach some of those people who are just always our people. I was telling national groups early on, like, ‘you should pay attention here.’”
Republicans say the warning signs have been visible in Kansas for months as the agriculture-heavy state got hammered by a series of economic blows, including increased input prices from Trump’s tariffs, high fuel prices as a result of the Iran war, his decision to increase foreign beef imports, and heavy-handed immigration enforcement.
As diesel prices shot up just ahead of the peak harvest season, the situation started to deteriorate even more in Kansas, according to Republicans.
Vice President JD Vance visited Olathe, Kansas, in mid-September to campaign with Marshall, a sign of the GOP’s growing worries. Days later, he took a shot at Hamilton during a speech in western Iowa for having “kind of a ‘gee whiz, I’m a nice pastor’ vibe,” but said he “tells his congregation not about the gospel of Jesus Christ, but that they need to repent for their white privilege while eating beef” — a reference to a frequent attack line on Hamilton about his past calls to decrease carbon emissions. Marshall recently criticized the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement, saying recent ICE operations in western Kansas should have coordinated with local law enforcement.
A handful of recent public polls have shown a close race in recent weeks. Hamilton’s internal polling and a recent poll for the Democratic Attorneys General Association shared with POLITICO found him tied or up a few points against Marshall. Republicans’ numbers are no better: One Republican involved in the race said a recent private GOP poll had Marshall down within the margin of error and said Trump’s approval rating has been underwater since summer in the state; another person said a different GOP poll of Kansas found a tied Senate race.
“I take it as a compliment that the Republicans are now going, ‘Oh my gosh, we didn’t think we were going to have to put money into Kansas, and now we’re going to pour millions of dollars in to try to save Roger Marshall,’” said Hamilton in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns, published Friday. “And I don’t think they’re going to save him.”
SLF’s Kansas ad buy came as they pulled back in North Carolina — the latest sign of a deteriorating national political environment.
And the agriculture-heavy Midwest has been particularly impacted by Trump’s policies. Republicans are currently fighting to hold onto Senate, House and governor’s seats in red-leaning Iowa and Ohio, and even redder Nebraska and Kansas.
Retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said the repeated economic blows to the Midwest were contributing to a series of tighter than comfortable races, including the Kansas Senate race.
“It’s the policies and the chaos,” Bacon said. “That’s why Trump’s numbers are low. Tariffs are not popular in the Midwest and they contribute to the cost of goods.”
National Republicans played down those concerns for weeks, arguing Marshall was still holding strong in polling and dispelling the belief that a Democrat could actually win the state.
But privately, top Senate GOP operatives and Republican senators have been deeply worried about worsening economic conditions across the Midwest, increasing the states where they need to play defense.
“He’s running scared,” one western Kansas Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said. “I don’t know if they took Hamilton for granted, but people are tired of Marshall not doing anything.”
Asked for comment for this story, a spokesperson for the Marshall campaign sent a link to a New York Post article that details a $1.2 million buy for an ad that alleges Hamilton failed to report a pedophile who volunteered at Hamilton’s church’s camp; Hamilton’s campaign has previously said the attacks are false.
“Adam Hamilton is a pedophile protector who would vote with Democrats like Chuck Schumer. He will never be the U.S. Senator from Kansas,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Samantha Cantrell.
The SLF ad launching Saturday accuses Hamilton of being “a two-faced extremist,” and accuses him of “founding a radical group promoting the idea that all white people are racist.”
“Adam Hamilton is running a strong campaign that’s giving a voice to Kansas families, farmers, seniors, and everyone being crushed by Roger Marshall’s toxic agenda,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Monica Robinson said in a statement shared after publication. “Marshall is right to be terrified that he will lose his job in November.”
Hamilton spokesperson Tyson Brody referenced a New York Times report about Marshall, a former obstetrician, and his involvement in lawsuits against patients who didn’t pay past due bills as he dismissed the ad barrage on behalf of a “failing” incumbent.
“With this new ad, Marshall is turning to these desperate lies and false attacks because Kansans have learned Roger Marshall had pregnant mothers arrested and jailed over small medical debts, and voted to block the release of the Epstein files,” he said.
Democrats have also hammered Marshall over the amount of time his family spends in Florida, where they have a second home.
Hamilton is considering a late-stage fundraising swing later this month that includes an event in Boston, according to a person familiar with the planning and granted anonymity to discuss it. Democrats are bullish about the state, but are facing a cash crunch across the map that could hinder their ability to spread money so far that it reaches Kansas. Senate Majority PAC was already “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state, its president told POLITICO last week.
Democrats are growing bullish about other Kansas races as well. Recent polling has also shown a relatively close race in the fight to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly as well as for attorney general. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Kansas’ 2nd District, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2024, to its extended offensive targets list Friday.
“It’s momentum, and that’s what we’re seeing across the state,” said Chris Mann, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.
A spokesperson for Ty Masterson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, pointed POLITICO to a mid-September Emerson College poll which showed their candidate leading Holscher 51% to 44%. The same poll found Hamilton leading Marshall 45% to 43%.
