Tracking the Tropics: Gulf disturbance on NHC’s radar this week

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather driven by an upper-level low near the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf this week.

If it does become a named storm, the next one on the list is “Isaias.” That is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.

The last time Isaias came around was in 2020, and there was a lot of debate over the pronunciation. The chosen one from the World Meteorological Organization is the Spanish translation of Isaiah (ees-ah-EE-ahs), and the other is an English speaker reading the Greek/Latin spelling out loud with English phonics common in the King James Bible 1611 translation (eye-SAY-uhs).

A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.

Forecast models show the disturbance moving northeast toward the Gulf Coast Friday through Sunday, Oct. 9-11.

Until there is an organized system to track, forecasting its impacts will be nearly impossible. Even if it remains poorly organized, it could bring soaking rain to parts of the South this weekend. Whether that includes some or all of Alabama remains to be seen. In other words, do not cancel plans anywhere in the region just yet.

Tropical moisture will be steered northward as the system approaches the coast later this week. Even if it remains weak, the system could still bring scattered-to-widespread showers through the weekend, depending on its exact track.

Rainfall potential could change significantly over the next few days as we watch the system forming. This is one model’s opinion, but it is valuable to see it as a worst-case scenario.

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