Flávio 50.6% in Brazil Count, 37% Counted
Updated 1 time · Latest: 4 October 2026
Live tonight
Follow Brazil’s vote count live
The official TSE count with every candidate’s share, the state map and what a runoff would mean, updated through the night.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Brazil’s first-round count, but only 36.60% of polling stations have reported, and several states where Lula leads are far from fully counted.
Key Facts
- The count: 36.60% of polling stations counted as of 18:32 Brasília time (17:32 US Eastern, 22:32 Lisbon), according to the electoral court (TSE).
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 50.63% of valid votes (21,383,323 votes). He is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL).
- Lula: 41.23% of valid votes (17,411,527 votes). He is the leftist president, from the Workers’ Party (PT).
- The rest: Augusto Cury 2.95%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.39%, Renan Santos 2.30%, Romeu Zema 0.28%. Six other candidates are each below 0.2%.
- Why it matters: A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. If nobody gets there, a runoff follows on Sunday 25 October.
- What it means for you: Brazil’s stock market is closed on Sundays and reopens on Monday 5 October. Treat tonight’s shares as a partial picture.
Where the Count Stands
Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, showed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 50.63% of valid votes at 18:32 Brasília time (17:32 US Eastern, 22:32 Lisbon). Lula had 41.23%. The gap was about 4.0 million votes, or 9.4 percentage points. A share above 50% at the end of the count would avoid a runoff, and the count has a long way to go.
Only 36.60% of polling stations had been counted. That is 182,745 of 499,248 sections. The TSE had not declared a result.
The rule is simple. A candidate wins in the first round with more than half of the valid votes. Blank and null ballots are not valid. Flávio Bolsonaro is above that line for now, but the line applies to the final count, not to a partial one.
Behind the two leaders, Augusto Cury has 2.95%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.39%, Renan Santos 2.30% and Romeu Zema 0.28%.
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Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
B3 · São Paulo
Oct 4, 2026 · 18:43
Ibovespa · benchmark
192,114.55
+2.63%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 15 names
47% advancing
7 ▲ advancing8 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
Sector heatmap · average move today
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.80%
ABEV3
Consumer Disc.
-2.63%
AZZA3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Largest moves today
+2.63%
-2.63%
+2.35%
+2.19%
-1.38%
-1.03%
+0.83%
-0.80%
The session read
The Ibovespa rose 2.63%, with breadth negative — 7 of 15 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
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Why the Early Count Is Not the Result
States report at different speeds. In the TSE’s state tables at about 22:40 Lisbon, the Federal District, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul were 82% to 95% counted. Flávio Bolsonaro led in all three.
Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará were each no more than 29% counted. Lula led them with roughly 60% to 65%. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, two of the biggest electorates, were each under 34% counted.
The national shares will therefore move as those states report. The final polls had pointed to a different order. Datafolha, in a poll published on 3 October, had Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes, with a margin of error of two points. A poll is not a result, and neither is a partial count. Read more in our final polls report.
Who Is Who
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. His Liberal Party sits on the political right.
Lula (PT) is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president since 2023. He also governed from 2003 to 2010. His Workers’ Party is on the left, and his running mate is Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.
Augusto Cury (Avante) is an author and psychiatrist. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) is a conservative politician from Goiás. Renan Santos (Missão) represents the newer Missão party. Romeu Zema (Novo) represents a free-market party.
Why It Matters for the US
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and US investors hold it through stocks, bonds and funds. The B3 exchange in São Paulo is closed on Sundays. The first market test comes on Monday 5 October.
US-listed shares of Petrobras and Vale, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), trade during US hours on Monday. The real, Brazil’s currency, will also react. A clear first-round result would remove three weeks of uncertainty. A runoff would keep it alive until 25 October.
The winner will also set the tone of Brazil’s relations with Washington, including trade. Our guide on what the election means for US investors covers the market angle, and our election explainer covers the rules.
What Happens Next
The TSE keeps publishing as more stations report. The share counted should rise through the night, and the leaders’ percentages will change with it.
If nobody ends above 50% of valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026. If someone does, the TSE would declare a first-round winner once the count is complete. We update this article as the TSE numbers change, and our live results page carries the state map.
What Is Not Known
We do not know whether the lead will hold as Bahia, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and other states report. We also do not know whether a runoff will be needed. Only the TSE count answers that.
Sources
- Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Resultados portal, presidential count, data of 4 October 2026, 18:32 Brasília time.
- TSE, state results tables, 4 October 2026.
- Datafolha poll published on 3 October 2026.
More on Brazil: Brazil hub. Live: Brazil election results.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading Brazil’s presidential election count?
At 18:32 Brasília time (17:32 US Eastern, 22:32 Lisbon), the electoral court (TSE) showed Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) with 50.63% of valid votes and President Lula of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) with 41.23%. Only 36.60% of polling stations had been counted, so the shares will move.
Has anyone won Brazil’s election yet?
No. The TSE has not declared a result. A candidate wins in the first round only with more than half of the valid votes once the count is complete. Blank and null ballots do not count as valid. If nobody passes that line, the top two meet in a runoff.
Why can an early count change so much?
Brazil’s states report at different speeds, and the early numbers come from different places. In the TSE’s state tables at about 22:40 Lisbon, the Federal District, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, where Flávio Bolsonaro leads, were 82% to 95% counted, while Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará, where Lula leads, were each no more than 29% counted.
When is a runoff, and where can I follow the count from the US?
A runoff would be held on Sunday 25 October 2026. The official count is on the TSE’s Resultados portal at resultados.tse.jus.br, and The Rio Times live results page shows every candidate’s share and the state map.
