Iran may use chemical weapons, Israel warns US, but officials doubt intelligence
Israel has provided the United States with intelligence indicating that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries, but officials in Washington are divided over the information’s credibility and significance, The New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing American and regional officials.
Some senior US officials received the intelligence with concern, while others expressed deep skepticism, viewing it as part of a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government aimed at convincing the Trump administration to resume large-scale fighting against Iran.
According to the report, during discussions with US intelligence agencies and other officials over the past two weeks, senior Israeli officials presented the chemical weapons threat as more urgent than Iran’s ambitions to develop nuclear weapons.
Israeli intelligence officials told their American counterparts that they believe Iran is rapidly advancing technology that would allow it to mount chemical weapons on missiles or smuggle them into Israel or another country to carry out an attack.
Other senior American officials believe the threat should be taken seriously, particularly in light of a series of recent warnings about Iranian preparations to attack US interests.
According to the newspaper, there is little disagreement within the American intelligence community that Iran is developing chemical weapons. The central dispute concerns whether Iranian leaders would actually use them, particularly if Iran is not attacked again.
Gulf officials question Israeli chemical weapons intelligence: ‘No evidence’
Israel also shared some of the intelligence with officials in Gulf states. Several questioned whether Iran was developing plans to use chemical weapons and believe Israel is attempting to push the United States and its partners toward a more intensive phase of the war.
A regional official told the newspaper that Israel had presented Gulf countries with assessments suggesting Iran was working to make its chemical weapons operational, but had not shared supporting evidence.
According to the official, Gulf governments regarded the claims as lacking seriousness.
For some American officials, the warnings have revived memories of the faulty intelligence surrounding Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction in 2002.
At the time, US intelligence agencies presented the White House with a firm assessment that Iraq possessed such weapons, although the country had largely abandoned or suspended its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs.
Even among those briefed on the new intelligence, assessments differ regarding how quickly and effectively Iran could deploy chemical weapons.
According to experts and American officials who spoke with the newspaper, mounting a chemical weapon on a ballistic missile is not particularly difficult, but ensuring the effective dispersal of the chemical agent is more complicated.
Smuggling a bomb across a border also presents difficulties. Another possibility mentioned was the use of a drone.
Despite the Israeli warnings, the newspaper reported that preparations for responding to chemical weapons attacks are not a central component of the Home Front Command exercises taking place across Israel this week.
Two Home Front Command officials said there had also been no widespread reminders distributed to officers or the public regarding protective instructions against such a threat.
The IDF declined to comment.
US prepares potential Iran strike as Washington, Tehran pursue diplomatic solution
The intelligence was shared as the United States and Iran explore the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough while simultaneously preparing for a resumption of hostilities.
According to senior American officials, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has a plan for an attack on Iran that could be carried out as early as Wednesday, November 4, one day after the US midterm elections.
The report stated that three American aircraft carriers are currently in the region, while the preferred operational window for an attack is expected to be brief.
One of the aircraft carriers will need to return to its home port after the beginning of November, and particularly dark nights are expected in the coming days, providing favorable conditions for military operations.
However, President Donald Trump has not yet approved a large-scale attack, and diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran are continuing.
In recent weeks, the United States has concentrated warships, fighter jets and bombers in the region in preparation for a possible relatively short military campaign involving intensive strikes.
At the same time, diplomats are attempting to formulate an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran’s nuclear program and postpone further military action.
According to the report, the military buildup could also serve as leverage to support the diplomatic effort.
Meanwhile, US intelligence agencies assess that the threat to Americans in the Middle East and several other countries is at its highest level since the war began in February.
Intelligence collection was intensified after an Iranian plot to attack a base in Britain used by American fighter jets was uncovered.
On October 23, a warning memorandum regarding potential Iranian attacks was sent to senior administration officials. Diplomats and other personnel were subsequently placed on heightened alert.
The newspaper also linked Netanyahu’s efforts to his political situation following the Israeli elections, in which he failed to secure a clear path toward forming a government.
Several commentators who spoke with the newspaper suggested that Netanyahu might attempt to use a national security emergency to pressure opposition leaders into joining a coalition under his leadership.
Iran denies chemical weapons program as US officials warn of possible escalation
American allegations regarding an Iranian chemical weapons program date back decades.
In 2003, Iran acknowledged that it had developed chemical capabilities during the Iran-Iraq War but claimed that it subsequently dismantled them.
Tehran denies possessing chemical weapons and has previously described such accusations as psychological warfare conducted by Israel and Netanyahu.
Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official responsible for Middle East policy during the Biden administration, said it has been known for more than two decades that Iran has been stockpiling components for chemical weapons, but has never used them.
However, she warned that Tehran could feel “existential pressure” and potentially cross the threshold into directly using such weapons offensively.
A spokesperson for Netanyahu’s office told the NYT: “Israel closely monitors every threat posed by the Iranian terrorist regime and is prepared to confront it.”
The White House did not respond to the newspaper’s request for comment, but an American official said Trump would defend the United States and its allies against any potential threat.
