Flávio Skips Band Debate as Lula Confirms
Politics: Brazil
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
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Who. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula, the two candidates in Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026.
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What. Flávio said on Tuesday 13 October that he does not plan to attend Band’s runoff debate on Sunday 18 October. Lula confirmed that he will go.
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Why. Neither candidate joined a joint debate in round one, so the runoff could again pass without a face-to-face meeting.
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Still open. Flávio’s team will decide on Globo’s debate on Friday 23 October. The media pool debate on Thursday 15 October still needs both candidates to confirm.
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Prediction markets. Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 15% and 14%), as of 14 October, 1:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro said on Tuesday that he does not plan to go to Band’s runoff debate on Sunday, while Lula confirmed. Here are the dates, the US times and what is still open before the 25 October vote.
What Flávio Said on 13 October
Flávio, the conservative senator who led round one, told reporters on Tuesday 13 October that he is not going to the Band debate, adding that attendance is “not planned”. Poder360 reported the remark after 17 regional branches of the MDB party announced support for his candidacy.
On the Globo debate of 23 October, Flávio said his campaign team would have the final word, Poder360 reported. Lula, by contrast, confirmed that he will attend and said he hopes his opponent will show up, CNN Brasil reported.
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The Debate Calendar at a Glance
Brazil votes in the runoff on Sunday 25 October. Four television debates were announced for the final two weeks, and one has already been cancelled.
| Event | Date | Broadcaster | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record debate | Sunday 11 October | Record | Cancelled by the broadcaster |
| Media pool debate, “O Momento da Decisão” | Thursday 15 October | 11 outlets, including SBT, CNN Brasil and RedeTV! | Needs both candidates to confirm; start time not announced |
| Band and Estadão debate | Sunday 18 October, 8 p.m. Brasília (7 p.m. US Eastern) | Band, with Estadão and partner outlets | Lula confirmed; Flávio says he is not going |
| Globo debate | Friday 23 October, after the Jornal Nacional news | TV Globo, GloboNews and g1 | Flávio’s team to decide |
| Globo interviews | Lula on Thursday 15 October, Flávio on Friday 16 October | TV Globo, after the Jornal Nacional news | Scheduled |
Band on 18 October
Band and Estadão announced their debate for Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time. That is 7 p.m. on the US East Coast and 4 p.m. on the West Coast.
Partner outlets include TV Cultura, TV Gazeta and Jovem Pan, and the debate is also due to stream on Estadão and YouTube. Band had first planned it for 11 October before moving it a week later.
Globo on 23 October
Globo has set its debate for Friday 23 October, after the evening news, two days before the vote. César Tralli is due to moderate, and the programme is planned for TV Globo, GloboNews and the g1 news site.
Globo will also interview each candidate alone. Lula is due on Thursday 15 October, interviewed by Renata Lo Prete, and Flávio on Friday 16 October.
The Pool Debate on 15 October and the Cancelled Record Debate
A pool of 11 outlets plans a debate called “O Momento da Decisão” (The Moment of Decision) on Thursday 15 October. Its members include CNN Brasil, Exame, Metrópoles, Nova Brasil FM, Rádio Itatiaia, RedeTV!, Rede Vida, SBT, SBT News, Terra and Veja+ TV.
Whether it happens depends on both candidates confirming, O Povo reported on 13 October. Lula’s Globo interview falls on the same day.
The Record debate planned for Sunday 11 October was cancelled by the broadcaster, which cited incompatible schedules. No new date for Record has been announced.
Why Round One Had No Joint Debate
Lula and Flávio did not take part in joint debates before the first round. On 1 October, Flávio pulled out of the Globo debate shortly before it started, citing what he called censorship by the electoral court TSE over the show’s rules.
Lula had also said he would not attend, and Globo then cancelled the debate. For the runoff, both men said they would take part, Lula on 5 October and Flávio on 6 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price Flávio Bolsonaro as the favourite for 25 October, and the box below shows the latest prices. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.1% · Lula 14.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 14%
As of 14 October, 1:20 am ET (06:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The latest Datafolha poll we have verified, from 8 October, had Flávio on 49% and Lula on 45% of all voters. Among valid votes, the poll gave Flávio 52% and Lula 48%.
What It Means for You
If you follow Brazil from the United States, a debate without the poll leader gives you fewer live moments to judge the candidates. Watch the Globo decision, because that is the last debate before the vote.
Investors in Brazilian shares and the real tend to watch prediction markets and polls around such events. A debate that shifts those numbers can move local assets the next morning, so the Monday session in São Paulo is worth watching.
Our election hub keeps the full runoff calendar. We will update this page when a broadcaster confirms or drops a date.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Flávio will attend the Globo debate, or whether Lula and Flávio will both appear on 15 October. The sources we checked give no start time for the pool debate.
It is also not known whether Band will go ahead with one candidate or change the format. Rules and the number of questions have not been published in the sources we checked.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Flávio Bolsonaro attend the Band debate?
Flávio said on Tuesday 13 October that he does not plan to go to the Band debate on Sunday 18 October. Lula confirmed that he will attend.
When are the Brazil runoff debates?
Band and Estadão plan a debate on Sunday 18 October and Globo one on Friday 23 October. A media pool debate on Thursday 15 October still needs both candidates to confirm.
What time is the Band debate in the United States?
It starts at 8 p.m. in Brasília on Sunday 18 October. That is 7 p.m. US Eastern and 4 p.m. US Pacific.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro go to the Globo debate?
That is open. He said his campaign team will have the final word on the debate planned for Friday 23 October.
Why did the Record debate on 11 October not happen?
Record cancelled it, citing incompatible schedules, according to O Povo. No new date has been announced.
When is the Brazil runoff?
The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday 25 October 2026. It follows the first round on Sunday 4 October.
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