College Basketball Rankings: Florida, Duke Highlight Preseason Top 25

Michigan made history last April by winning the national championship with a starting lineup of five transfers — the first team ever to accomplish that feat — which raises my biggest question heading into this season:

Is building a championship roster through the transfer portal the new normal?

While the Wolverines proved that a talented group of newcomers can come together and win it all, I still believe continuity matters, which is why I find it impossible to ignore the Florida Gators heading into this season. Forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, along with center Rueben Chinyelu, return to anchor a roster that I believe has the experience, talent and chemistry to make a serious run.

In an era when rosters can look completely different from one season to the next, I believe the teams that pair a proven core with the right portal additions will have an edge when March arrives.

With that, here’s a look at my preseason top 25 rankings:

2025-26 Record: 18-14 (Did not play in NCAA Tournament)

My outlook for the Hoosiers: The Hoosiers have significantly upgraded their talent, particularly in the backcourt with former Notre Dame guard Markus Burton and in the frontcourt with Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and Samet Yigitoglu (SMU). Darian DeVries’ team should have more offensive firepower, versatility and interior size this season, but with only one returning player, chemistry will be the biggest question.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Markus Burton, G, Sr. (Notre Dame: 18.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.7 APG)

Stat to know: When this team gets to the line, they make you pay. Indiana ranked 15th nationally in free-throw shooting last season, converting 78% of its attempts. 

Odds to win national title: +6500 (tied 27th-best)

2025-26 Record: 23-11 (Lost to Alabama in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Red Raiders: Head coach Grant McCasland made a big splash when he landed senior Cruz Davis out of the transfer portal this offseason. Davis, a 6-foot-3, 185-pound guard, averaged 20.1 points and 4.7 assists last season at Hofstra. The return of senior forward Darrion Williams, who spent last season at NC State after two straight years in Lubbock, also makes the Red Raiders interesting.  Having said that, Texas Tech’s entire season rides on the return and success of All-American forward JT Toppin, who suffered a torn ACL last year.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Cruz Davis, G, Sr. (Hofstra: 20.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.7 APG)

Stat to know: Don’t let this team get hot from deep. The Red Raiders ranked sixth nationally in 3-pointers made per game (11.3) and seventh in 3-point shooting percentage (39.1%) last season.

Odds to win national title: +2200 (tied seventh-best)

2025-26 Record: 23-12 (Lost to Texas in Round of 64)

My outlook for the Cougars: Fifth-year senior forward Jaxon Kohler, who played four seasons at Michigan State under head coach Tom Izzo, brings rebounding and experience to this BYU team. Point guard Robert Wright III returns for a second season and has the talent to be a first-team all-conference performer, while forward Colin Chandler returns to his hometown after two seasons at Kentucky. This team doesn’t have AJ Dybantsa this year, but the Cougars could be better defensively. 

Transfer I’ll be watching: Jaxon Kohler, F, Sr. (Michigan State: 12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.3 APG)

Stat to know: Jaxon Kohler was one of only two power-conference players in the entire country to record at least 300 rebounds and 50 made 3-pointers last season. He crashes the glass and splashes from deep.

Odds to win national title: +6500 (tied 27th-best)

2025-26 Record: 26-9 (Lost to Purdue in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Trojans: Standout guard Alijah Arenas made the decision to return to USC for his sophomore season, which gives this team major scoring upside. Head coach Eric Musselman was able to land former UConn big man Eric Reibe out of the transfer portal. He adds size and massive upside to a roster that could outperform this ranking if healthy.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Eric Reibe, C, Soph. (UConn: 5.9 PPG, 3.3 RPH, 0.5 APG)

Stat to know: The Trojans sent shots back like unwanted mail last year. They averaged 5.7 blocks per game, which ranked eighth nationally and second in the Big Ten behind Michigan.

Odds to win national title: +5500 (26th-best)

2025-26 Record: 30-7 (Lost to Duke in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Red Storm: The Red Storm made a big splash with the surprising addition of Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou. He’s a big-bodied guard who can impact the game on both ends of the floor, averaging 18 points and 6 rebounds per game last season. Head coach Rick Pitino has a lot of talent, but major turnover, injuries and eligibility questions complicate this projection.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Tounde Yessoufou, G, Soph. (St. John’s: 17.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.6 APG)

Stat to know: Rick Pitino has won 76.4% of his games at St. John’s since taking over in 2023, leading the Red Storm to back-to-back Big East regular-season and tournament titles. Queens is officially back on the college basketball map.

Odds to win national title: +3300 (tied 14th-best)

2025-26 Record: 25-10 (Lost to Michigan in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Crimson Tide: Alabama forward Amari Allen withdrew from the NBA Draft and will provide the Crimson Tide with a steadying force on the perimeter. Head coach Nate Oats landed former Georgetown and Boise State forward Drew Fielder out of the transfer portal, which should help offset the loss of big man Aiden Sherrell. Fielder averaged 14.7 points and shot 40.9% from 3-point range last season. He should fit nicely in Oats’ offense, although the backcourt has important questions. Standout guard Aden Holloway will miss three exhibition games and two regular-season games during a five-game suspension following his arrest on a drug charge.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Drew Fielder, F, Sr. (Boise State: 14.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 AST)

Stat to know: Aden Holloway posted a 65% True Shooting Percentage (TS%) and a 59.9% Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) across 28 games (16.8 PPG) last season. He doesn’t waste many possessions.

Odds to win national title: +4500 (tied 21st-best)

2025-26 Record: 24-11 (Lost to St. John’s in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Jayhawks: Tyran Stokes, the top-ranked freshman in the 2026 recruiting class, gives Kansas another talented superstar guard. Head coach Bill Self was able to land former Toledo standout Leroy Blyden out of the transfer portal. The sophomore guard provides experienced scoring and playmaking after being named MAC Freshman of the Year.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Leroy Blyden, G, Soph. (Toledo: 16.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG)

Stat to know: Kansas has won 16 Big 12 regular-season titles under Bill Self. The Big 12 runs through Lawrence.

Odds to win national title: +3500 (tied 16th-best)

2025-26 Record: 24-12 (Lost to UConn in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Bruins: Head coach Mick Cronin has a nice mix of returners, transfers and incoming freshmen. Both junior guard Trent Perry and senior forward Eric Dailey return for the Bruins and should provide a solid scoring punch. Sophomore guard Jaylen Petty, who started 22 games as a freshman at Texas Tech last season, arrives in Westwood and should add scoring and creation. Cronin also ushers in a very talented international group, including Serbian forward Nikola Kusturica.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Jaylen Petty, G, Soph. (Texas Tech: 9.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 APG)

Stat to know: Xavier Booker protects the rim and stretches the floor. The 6-foot-11, 245-pound forward was the only player across all major conferences to record 40-plus blocks while shooting at least 50% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc last season.

Odds to win national title: +4500 (tied 21st-best)

2025-26 Record: 22-14 (Lost to Iowa State in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Wildcats: Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic, one of the country’s premier shooters, joins forces with sophomore center Malachi Moreno. How far can the duo take Mark Pope’s Kentucky squad? The Wildcats’ ceiling will depend heavily on guard play and how quickly the pieces come together offensively.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Milan Momcilovic, F, Sr. (Iowa State: 16.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG)

Stat to know: Milan Momcilovic averaged 16.9 points per game last season, the fourth-highest scoring average among transfers heading into this season. The Wildcats just added a walking bucket.

Odds to win national title: +3500 (tied 16th-best)

2025-26 Record: 26-9 (Lost to Purdue in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Hurricanes: Forward Malik Reneau was granted another year of eligibility and is set to return to the Hurricanes, which is enormous. Head coach Jai Lucas was able to add Villanova transfer guard Acaden Lewis this offseason, which should help with shot creation on the perimeter. Lucas has an intriguing mix of returning talent and newcomers.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Acaden Lewis, G, Soph. (Villanova: 12.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.3 APG)

Stat to know: Feed Somto Cyril the ball and good things tend to happen. The Georgia transfer shot 75.9% from the field last season, the second-highest mark in the country among players who appeared in at least 20 games.

Odds to win national title: +4000 (tied 18th-best)

2025-26 Record: 37-3 (Won national championship)

My outlook for the Wolverines: One year after relying on an elite frontcourt, the core of this Michigan team will reside in its returning backcourt of Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney. Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam will help replace the departing frontcourt size, but Dusty May’s departure creates uncertainty.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Moustapha Thiam, C, Jr. (Cincinnati: 12.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.6 BLK)

Stat to know: Michigan will be tasked with replacing 66.1% of its scoring from last year’s national championship team. That’s a whole lota buckets to replace.

Odds to win national title: +4000 (tied 18th-best)

2025-26 Record: 29-8 (lost to Tennessee in Round of 16)

My outlook for the Cyclones: Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger has rebuilt his program around defensive versatility and toughness. Bradley transfer Jaquan Johnson – who averaged 16.9 points per contest last season – adds an experienced presence in the backcourt to a roster that looks substantially different heading into this season.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Jaquan Johnson, G, Jr. (Texas Tech: 16.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG)

Stat to know: Senior guard Tamin Lipsey is the only player in Big 12 history and one of only two power-conference players in modern Division I history to reach 1,500-plus points, 600-plus assists, 500-plus rebounds, and 300-plus steals. He scores, dishes, rebounds and picks pockets.

Odds to win national title: +4500 (tied 21st-best)

2025-26 Record: 28-9 (Lost to Arizona in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Razorbacks: Georgia transfer guard Jermiah Wilkinson brings proven scoring to a roster featuring one of the nation’s premier freshman classes, led by guard Jordan Smith Jr. Head coach John Calipari brings in the No. 2-ranked recruiting class in the nation. In other words: The Razorbacks should be loaded … again.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Jeremiah Wilkinson, G, Jr. (Georgia: 17.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.7 APG)

Stat to know: John Calipari enters the season with six Final Four appearances and ranks fifth all-time in NCAA Division I history in NCAA Tournament wins (59). Love him or hate him, he knows how to win in March.

Odds to win national title: +3300 (tied 14th-best)

2025-26 Record: 25-12 (Lost to Michigan in Elite Eight)

My outlook for the Volunteers: Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes added a legitimate go-to scorer this offseason in guard Juke Harris, who averaged 21.4 points and 6.5 rebounds last season at Wake Forest. The Vols’ defense will be there like it always is. 

Transfer I’ll be watching: Juke Harris, G, Jr. (Wake Forest; 21.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.9 APG)

Stat to know: The Vols own the paint. Tennessee has finished in the top five nationally in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency in three consecutive seasons, holding opponents under 40% shooting at the rim.

Odds to win national title: +3000 (tied 11th-best)

2025-26 Record: 31-4 (Lost to Texas in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Bulldogs: Arizona State transfer center Massamba Diop gives Gonzaga head coach Mark Few an impact rim protector. Diop should compliment senior forward Braden Huff, who is an All-American candidate. The question is: how quickly can the Zags’ rebuilt backcourt come together?

Transfer I’ll be watching: Massamba Diop, C, Soph. (Arizona State; 13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.1 BLK)

Stat to know: Gonzaga has reached the Sweet 16 in eight of the last 10 tournaments. The Zags have made the second weekend feel like a yearly tradition.

Odds to win national title: +3000 (tied 11th-best)

2025-26 Record: 30-6 (Lost to Tennessee in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Cavaliers: Virginia head coach Ryan Odom returns a strong core this season, led by All-ACC forward Thijs De Ridder. The Cavaliers added senior guard Jurian Dixon, who was a first-team All-Big West performer at UC Irvine, where he averaged 15.9 points per contest last season.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Jurian Dixon, G, Sr. (UC Irvine; 15.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.5 APG)

Stat to know: Virginia is keeping the band together, returning four of its top six scorers from last year’s 30-win team.

Odds to win national title: +3000 (10th-best)

2025-26 Record: 30-7 (Lost to Illinois in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Cougars: Senior forward Joseph Tugler is back in the frontcourt to anchor Kelvin Sampson’s defense. After beginning his career at UNLV and spending last season at LSU, point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. is the experienced playmaker Houston needs after major backcourt departures.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Dedan Thomas Jr., G, Sr. (LSU; 15.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 6.5 APG)

Stat to know: Houston has made seven consecutive Sweet 16s, the longest active streak in the country.

Odds to win national title: +3000 (tied 11th-best)

2025-26 Record: 24-11 (Lost to Michigan State in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Cardinals: The Cardinals went out and spent a lot of money to put together a team that I think is title worthy. Let’s start with the best defensive center in the country: Flory Bidunga. Pat Kelsey also added Oregon transfer guard Jackson Shelstad and former Arkansas wing Karter Knox, giving Louisville tremendous upside.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Flory Bidunga, F, Jr. (Kansas: 13.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.6 BLK)

Stat to know: Louisville averaged 84.3 points per game last season, but returns just 10.5% of the team’s offensive production. The Cardinals have plenty of buckets to replace as Pat Kelsey retools the roster.

Odds to win national title: +2200 (tied seventh-best)

2025-26 Record: 21-15 (Lost to Purdue in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Longhorns: Texas head coach Sean Miller has assembled a high-ceiling roster. TCU transfer forward David Punch joins returning center Matas Vokietaitis to give the Longhorns an imposing frontcourt, while guards Isaiah Johnson and Mikey Lewis strengthen the perimeter. If the newcomers come together quickly, Texas has the size, talent and depth to build on last season’s Sweet 16 run.

Transfer I’ll be watching: David Punch, F, Jr. (TCU: 14.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG)

Stat to know: Texas center Matas Vokietaiti converted 61.9% of his field goal attempts last season, ranking among the top five interior finishers in the SEC.

Odds to win national title: +2200 (tied seventh-best)

2025-26 Record: 34-6 (Lost to Michigan in national championship)

My outlook for the Huskies: Head coach Dan Hurley convinced freshman standout Braylon Mullins to return to UConn after a magical run to the 2026 national title game. Mullins and point guard Silas Demary Jr. make up an outstanding returning backcourt, while Duke transfer Nik Khamenia brings versatility at forward.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Nikolas Khamenia, F, Soph. (Duke: 5.7 PPG, 3.3 RPH, 1.0 APG)

Stat to know: All he does is win. Dan Hurley has won 72.6% of his games since taking over at UConn in 2018, compiling a 199-75 record and leading the Huskies to three national championship appearances in four years. 

Odds to win national title: +1200 (third-best)

2025-26 Record: 36-3 (Lost to Michigan in Final Four)

My outlook for the Wildcats: Head coach Tommy Lloyd will rely on returning center Motiejus Krivas and forward Ivan Kharchenkov, who give the Wildcats a high floor, especially on defense. Caleb Holt headlines a talented freshman class, while North Carolina transfer guard Derek Dixon brings shooting and playmaking after starting 16 games last season.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Derek Dixon, G, Soph. (North Carolina: 6.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.7 APG)

Stat to know: The paint is in good hands. Arizona brings back 7-foot-2 center Motiejus Krivas, who averaged 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game last season. Opponents scored 14 fewer points per 100 possessions with Krivas on the floor last season.

Odds to win national title: +2000 (tied fifth-best)

2025-26 Record: 27-8 (Lost to UConn in Sweet 16)

My outlook for the Spartans: Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is an extension of coach Tom Izzo on the court. He gives the Spartans one of the nation’s best floor generals, but for them to go the distance, senior forward Coen Carr will need to take the next step. Center Anton Bonke, a transfer from Charlotte, adds 7-foot-2 size down low.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Anton Bonke, C, Sr. (Charlotte: 10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.0 APG)

Stat to know: March is a tradition in East Lansing. Tom Izzo has taken Michigan State to the NCAA Tournament in 28 consecutive seasons. No matter what the Spartans look like in November, you can never count Izzo out come March.

Odds to win national title: +2000 (tied fifth-best)

2025-26 Record: 28-9 (Lost to Michigan in Final Four)

My outlook for the Illini: Illinois head coach Brad Underwood should feel good about this group after guard Andrej Stojakovic withdrew from the NBA Draft and returned to the Illini. The team also had a major perimeter addition this offseason in guard Stefan Vaaks, who averaged 15.8 points and made 91 3s last season at Providence. Sophomore forward David Mirkovic’s health is a concern, or I’d have them at No. 2.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Stefan Vaaks, G, Soph. (Providence: 15.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.2 APG)

Stat to know: Five of Illinois’ top eight scorers are back, headlined by senior guard Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG), who tested the NBA Draft waters before ultimately withdrawing and returning to Champaign. That’s a major scoring boost for an Illini team looking to keep its offensive firepower intact.

Odds to win national title: +1300 (fourth-best)

2025-26 Record: 35-3 (Lost to UConn in Final Four)

My outlook for the Blue Devils: Duke’s roster blends star power and depth. Wisconsin transfer guard John Blackwell provides proven perimeter scoring alongside guards Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr and another elite freshman class.

Transfer I’ll be watching: John Blackwell, G, Sr. (Wisconsin: 19.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG)

Stat to know: Jon Scheyer and Duke have won 70 games in the past two seasons, which is the most in the country and a program record.

Odds to win national title: +600 (second-best)

2025-26 Record: 27-8 (Lost to Iowa in Round of 32)

My outlook for the Gators: Florida vaulted to No. 1 after the team’s entire frontcourt elected to return. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, all key contributors to Florida’s 2025 national championship team, are back. Denzel Aberdeen gives head coach Todd Golden another experienced guard.

Transfer I’ll be watching: Denzel Aberdeen, G, Sr. (Kentucky: 13.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.4 APG)

Stat to know: Good luck slowing down Florida’s offense. The Gators return 81.5% of their scoring production from last year’s 27-8 team.

Odds to win national title: +550 (first)